Anyone can claim a model works. This page is the actual test PitchLine holds itself to — run against real results, scored against the real market, with nothing left out of the average.
Two numbers, both standard in forecasting — not invented for this page.
Brier score
The squared error between the probability PitchLine gave an outcome and what actually happened. A confident, correct call scores near 0; a confident, wrong call is punished hard. Lower is better. Guessing every outcome as equally likely scores about 0.667 — that's the floor a real model has to beat.
Model vs. market gap
The same score, calculated for the real closing bookmaker odds on the same matches, minus PitchLine's score. Closing lines are shaped by professional money and are genuinely hard to beat — landing close to the market is the honest goal here, not beating it.
Walk the season in order
Every match is predicted using only results that happened before it — never data from later in the season. A model that peeked at the future would look better than it is.
Score every prediction, not just the highlights
The full season's matches go into the average — not a curated set of the calls that went well.
Compare against the real closing line
Where the underlying data includes actual bookmaker odds, those are scored the same way and shown side by side with PitchLine's numbers.
The scoring method above is built and tested — what's missing is a full season of real matches to run it against. Rather than post a partial or synthetic number and call it a track record, this section stays empty until there's a real one to show.
A second, more concrete way to see whether the model is actually finding value — not just whether it sounds confident.
How it works
A fictional $10,000 bankroll, flat $100 stakes, betting only when PitchLine's probability for an outcome is meaningfully higher than what the real market's odds imply — no bet at all when the model and the market roughly agree. Every result runs through the same rolling backtest as the accuracy score above: only past data is ever used to predict a match, and every bet is graded against real market odds, not PitchLine's own.
When tracking starts
Fictional stakes only begin once a covered league's current season actually kicks off — never backdated into a prior season to make the numbers look better. The model still uses the prior season's results to build sensible team ratings beforehand (so it isn't guessing blind on opening weekend), it just never bets on any of that earlier data.
What this isn't
This is a hypothetical simulation for illustration only — not real money, not a real betting account, and not gambling or investment advice. A run of good weeks here would not be a promise about future weeks; sports betting carries real financial risk, and a fictional bankroll doesn't change that.
Same reason as above: the simulator is built and tested, but a real hypothetical bankroll number needs a real season of results behind it. It'll post here — full daily breakdown included, wins and losses both — once that exists.